Irish Bank Shares

A few months back, when the two main irish banks had share counted in the tens of cents, I was looking at their reports, likely losses, and all that stuff, and I made a decision to buy AIB shares, if they hit my price. I think I set it at around 25 cents a share. It wasn't a random choice, it was to do with the history of dividend payments, and what I considered to be a good balance of risk/reward within the banks loan book.

The shares came very close to that price, and then they slowly rallied. All the way back to their price today of €2.08. If I had bought the day I had made my analysis, I would have close to 7 times my investment, so you can imagine how hard I am [mentally] kicking myself right now.

*But*, that is not the end of the story, I'm still looking at the share prices and thinking what is the best approach to take on the shares. My take on it... 85% of the current share price is a gamble that NAMA will go ahead. I would not buy bank shares now. Even if NAMA does go ahead, and with the Green Party thinking about pulling out, and the Zoe Group ruling, that may be a little less certain, I would not take the risk.